Showing posts with label Real Estate. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Real Estate. Show all posts

Monday, July 6, 2009

"Tree House" For Sale

If a picture is worth a 1000 words, then what does this one say?

Tree HouseClick image for larger view

We all know that a listing without any photos is less likely to be looked at by Buyers. You should always have at least 1 photo on your listings. The more photos you have on the listing the more likely it is that the Buyer will consider it. Your photos should also not hide the ugliness.

I know, you want to show the property in it's best light. I agree. However, you should also not intentionally hide issues. I have no idea what the status of the property in the photo is. I am not sure the listing agent does either. The above photo is the ONLY photo on the listing. I am not sure I would have chosen this as my primary and ONLY photo. What does the inside look like? If it looks like this on the outside perhaps the inside is so bad that it wasn't worth taking interior photos.

Here are the public comments in entirety!

SHORT SALE

What more could you possibly want to know about this property right? How about, WHY IS THE TREE RESTING ON THE HOUSE! I can just imagine the conversation that took place at that listing appointment.

And the agent remarks don't provide much more information. In fact, they just say to be sure and call before you visit. Why, so you can reserve me a hard hat or so that you can take down the caution tape in hopes I won't notice the white elephant. What Buyer would even consider visiting? Give me more information on the home. It doesn't mention that the roof has a tree resting on it. A fairly LARGE tree from the looks of it. I am sure it hasn't occurred to this listing agent or the owner why the property has been on the market longer than 200 days.

My advice to the lender reviewing offers for this home, if any have come forth. Take the first offer over $1 and call it a successful sale! You do not want to own this property!


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Inferred Housing Cycles

I was sifting through the data that I have on the local real estate market here in the Inland Empire and I started to wonder when the homes that were on the market were built. So I put together some graphs. It turns out that the homes that are on the market were most commonly (the mode for you statisticians) built in 2005.

This first graph shows the number of listings on 7/30/2008 by the year built. I kept the vertical axis set to 120 so that it was easier to compare the graphs.

Click image for larger view


My data does not indicate anything in particular. However, it does appear that the year that the homes that are on the market were built tend to have peaks and valleys. For example, a sample of data taken on March 30, 2009 with a 30 day window indicates that there is a peak of homes built in 1979, then a relative steady pace from 1985-1989 with a drop in 1987, then a rise again until we peak at 2005.

Keep in mind that all of the years shown are for homes that were on the market during the sample period. So this data does not represent any correlation with the number of homes built during a given year. It represents a sample of listings with a change in status within 30 days of the sample period.

This second graph show the number of listings by year built on 6/29/2009.Click image for larger view

Why would there be such a pattern of peaks and valleys. I sampled the data set for several different months. I went as far back as July 30, 2008. The actual data is a little different, but the peaks and valleys are roughly the same.

So the data begs the question. Why are homes built in 1987 less likely to be listed than homes built in 1988? Why are so many homes that are built in 2005 on the market?

I suspect, but can't seem to find anything to correlate the data, that it may be related to historical housing booms and busts. It is my theory that during the peak of the housing boom that the quality of construction may decline because builders are under pressure to complete projects at an ever increasing pace to keep up with demand. As the boom turns to bust, they are free to spend "quality time" building a structure.

One theory that I also considered was related to financing of the homes. Homes that were purchased in 2005 may be financed with Adjustable Rate Mortgages that are beginning to reset. However, this does not explain the peaks and valleys for the older homes. All of the data represents current listings, not the number of homes listed in that year.

Another theory may be purely related to the number homes built during a particular year. If lots of homes were built during 1986, but not so many in 1987, then it stands to reason that an equal percentage of each year will result in a higher count during boom years and a smaller number during less that active years. Lots of homes were built in 2005. During the period of 2006-2009 less homes were built. So perhaps the data is just a reflection of the building cycle?

Take a look at the two graphs. What is your theory on what the data means?

Note: The data for these graphs were all in the 92336 area code. If a larger geographical area is sampled, then the data may be more uniform.


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Sunday, June 21, 2009

Inland Empire Sales 1 in 5

The Inland Empire continues to have strong sales numbers, relatively speaking. According to report from MDA DataQuick, and estimated 39,051 homes and condos were sold in California during the month of May. During the same period, MDA DataQuick reports that 7,548 homes were sold in the Riverside and San Bernardino Counties. Also known as the Inland Empire.

That is about 19% of all homes, or 1 in 5, sold statewide were sold in the Inland Empire. So homes in the Inland Empire are definitely moving. With a median price of $137,000 in San Bernardino County its no wonder homes are selling. First time buyers and investors see that real estate in the Inland Empire is the place to buy. Prices are down and you can find great deals.

For those investors that didn't buy during the boom, this is the time when they are buying some of the best deals. in 3-5 years these homes will have provided decent cash flow from a renter and can be resold for a reasonable profit. If held onto for 10 years, you can expect to make more than $100,000 in profit between monthly rents and an eventual resale without trying very hard. Multiply that by 10 homes and you are averaging $100,000/year income. Most people would consider that a good income.


A quick glance at active listing in San Bernardino County that have been listed in just the last 7 days with 3 or more bedrooms and 2 or more baths gives us 354 listings. Here is just a sample of some of the low price leaders.

Click image for a larger version





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Friday, October 31, 2008

Trick or Treat?


There are not that many Buyers out there these days. With all the news about the economy and lack of funding, buyers are waiting this market out as they have been for several years now. My personal opinion is that if you are looking for a home now you might lose a little value in the next year. However, it will not be as significant as the loss was for those that purchased in 2005.

Timing the real estate market is notoriously difficult. Generally the peaks and valleys are known 3-6 months after they have occurred. If you want to buy a home and you have the cash, now is the time to look. However, don't just settle for anything, find the good deal.

I was poking around on the MLS and decided to look for the best deal I could find. To make it easy and a bit less subjective, I am using the Price per Square foot as the yard stick. Certainly this does not a deal make, but serves as a good benchmark.

So using the using the bang for the buck theory, what can you find in North Fontana? I did a search for homes in the 92336 area code that were within the Etiwanda School District boundaries. I found only 2 homes that are under the $100/sq. ft. price range. One of them was an REO and the other was a short-sale. Since the majority of short-sales never happen, I am going to have to give the title to the REO.

At just $95/sq. ft. this 3683 sqft home is the best value. It has been on the market for over 408 days as of this writing. The previous owner paid $405,500 for this home and then took more than $450,000 out of the home. The bank took it over for $448,510.

While the price per sqft is a good deal, the sticker price can be difficult for some buyers to look at. The bank has owned this home since April of 2007. The home was first listed at $504,900. Amazingly it did not sell. (That is sarcasm).




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Friday, August 22, 2008

Will Retirement Ever Come?

One of the key factors of the presidential campaign this election year is the state of the Economy. Talk about tax cuts, tax increases, the rich, the poor, the middle class are abundant. The Republicans are going to save us and the Democrats are going to ruin us. The Republicans are for the rich and the Democrats are for the poor. I have heard it all before and I am quite frankly not impressed. I guess I am one of those moderates that believes there are good and bad points of each and they spend too much time pointing figures and playing the blame game instead of actually doing any good. Neither of the parties is perfect nor have all the answers. I am tired of having to choose which bad points I am willing to live with. One of the more annoying pieces of rhetoric is taxes and the state of the budget deficit. They all quote their own numbers and declare they have made things better for the American people by doing completely opposite things. The truth of the matter is that the Average Joe has no chance of ever knowing the truth. They never use the same method of determining their answers and they never tell you how they come to their conclusion. If they do give an explanation it is always with graphs and language that most of us just don't speak.

Let me give you my simplified view on life. You can be on one of two. It doesn't matter if you are "rich", "poor" or in the "middle class". Throw out whatever definition you have formed for what qualifies you as one of those three tiers. Everyone is in one of two tiers and here they are. You are either a consumer or an investor.

A consumer spends their money and usually has debt. How much debt a consumer has will determine how far to the left they are on the scale of poverty. A consumer can have assets like a home, stocks, bonds, cars and boats, however, what is owed on these items are often more than what they are worth. A consumer generally has a negative net worth or has very little positive net worth in comparison to an investor. The more negative a consumer's net worth the harder the struggle will be to ever get to the investor side of the scale. Once a consumer reaches a certain point on the consumer scale, they will forever struggle to not be a consumer in debt. Go too far to the left and the best case for a consumer is to stop the slide to the left. Standing still on the slide is the best you may ever do.

An investor owns assets. They generally have a positive net worth. An investor will forever struggle to keep their positive net worth and their assets. The more assets an investor owns the further to the right of the investor scale they are. An investor has assets like homes, stocks, bonds, cars and boats; however, the value of these assets is often higher than what is owed on them. Over time, the equity they have in these assets grows as the debt on the assets is amortized and the values of the assets rise. The further to the right of the scale an investor is the easier it is to stay on the right side of the investor scale. Once you reach a certain point on the scale, you will forever be an investor unless you choose to throw it all away. Stop investing before you reach that point and you can quickly slide to the left and into the consumer in debt scale.

This is an important point. It is fiscally easier to be a consumer and difficult to be an investor. Being a consumer can mean a life of constant struggle. Being an investor can make life easier in the long run. A consumer must constantly struggle to make money so they can pay their debt or purchase the next big toy. While an investor will struggle to stay an investor, the struggle will result in greater rewards. A consumer can do give up and slide further to the left of the scale with little or no effort. An investor must actively labor to stay an investor. If an investor stops working at being an investor, they have the ability to slide quickly into the in debt consumer side. A consumer will never accidently ascend into the investor scale.

So where are you? Where do you want to be? You can be a consumer living with debt and be "happy." If you are close to the center of the scale then you can maintain your position as a consumer by just doing the bare minimum to make it. You will always have debt or little to no net worth, but you can live with it. Or you could be the poor sole that is deeper in debt every day that you wake up. The further from the center you are, the more rapid the movement and steeper the path to the investor side. As your debt grows, the speed at which you move to the left of the economic scale will increase. Move too far to the left of the scale and you will never be able to recover on your own. You can struggle toward the right of the scale, but it is kind of like the 900 pound person losing 200 pounds. They lost a lot of weight and should be congratulated, but they still weigh 700 pounds! You are much better served to go on the diet at 200 pounds.

Then there is the investor or right side of the scale. If you have a positive net worth you have much more opportunity to raise it. The more assets you own the more you can invest and the more your assets can grow. The more the assets grow the larger your net worth will be. It compounds just like that savings account with the insulting interest rate from the bank. Every time you increase your net worth, those assets compound to create more net worth. As your assets grow you move further to the right. Move far enough to the right and you can ensure you stay on the right side of the scale with minimal effort.

So are you the one with all the newest fancy gadgets that has enough money to get you to the next paycheck, or are you like Mr. McCain and can't keep track of how many houses you own? If you don't know what your net worth is then you are on the left half of the scale. I suggest that you do everything in your power to start out on the right half of the scale. When you are on right half of the scale, you can waste a little of your net worth and still be on the right half. However, if you start on the left, you will forever struggle to reach the middle. You will most likely never pass into the right half for any significant length of time.

A mistake a lot of consumers make is to spend their pay raise before they get it. This can be dangerous. According to the Federal Reserve Board, Survey of Consumer Finances the mean of family incomes fell by 2.3% actually decreased during the periods of 2001-2004. It must be those tax cuts that saved us.


Click image for larger view

So what does the top 0.5% wealthiest in the nation invest in that the others don't? According to a paper Estimation of Household Net Worth Using Model-Based and Design-Based Weights: Evidence from the 1989 Survey of Consumer Finances by Arthur B. Kennickell and R. Louise Woodburn the wealthy invest in businesses, bonds and real estate. The top 0.5% own 51.6% of the businesses, 66.1% of the bonds and 33.4% of all real estate (not including their principal residence). So if you want to be in the top 0.5% of the nations wealthy you will need to invest in businesses, bonds and real estate that you do not live in.

What do the lower 90% of consumers spend their money on? Automobiles (75.5%), their principal residence (65.1%) and life insurance (60.5%).

If you want to move toward the right, then I suggest you start spending less and investing more. Putting money into a savings account does not count as investing. Savings accounts with lots of cash in them are nothing but nest eggs. They can crack and rot at any time. You need to buy assets to be an investor and cash is not an asset. Assets will appreciate and create additional net worth. When you have enough assets to generate income to support you without working then you have moved far enough to the right to stay there. If you are depending on a pension, job, or Social Security then you are at the mercy of others. That is not a position you want to be in. Your pension, job or Social Security should be extra money that you use as play money.

So how does the Average Joe reach retirement? I would suggest you try one or a combination of what the wealthy are doing. Own a business, purchase some bonds, and/or purchase some investment real estate. Not everyone has what it takes to own and/or run a business. Building or purchasing a business can take a lot of capital that man do not have. Bonds can be purchase a little at a time, but most of us don't have enough capital or time to purchase the number of bonds required to generate a sustainable income if we retire. That leaves us with real estate. Real estate is one of the few investments where you can purchase with very little of your own money and use leverage to your advantage. Personally, I think that real estate is the best chance that the Average Joe has of becoming wealthy enough to retire. A home is something that an Average Joe can understand and actually purchase with relatively small amounts of capital and receive huge returns on that investment. The key is to purchase real estate that you do not live in. Get somebody else to pay the mortgage on it.

Yes, I am aware that the housing market is in the middle of a melt-down. Must I remind you that the stock market has gone through a few melt-downs in the past? That is part of the economic cycle. Housing will return. The problem is that nobody knows when. The cost of food is increasing but you haven't stopped eating. As housing goes boom or bust you don't stop investing in it. You simply make sure that when you purchase the house that you have made a good investment. If you make a good investment then where the housing market goes is irrelevant.

Click image for larger view


Consider this. The median family net worth of homeowners in 2004 was $184,400. The median family net worth of a renter was $4,000. As you can see, the median net worth of homeowners increased from 1995-2004 while the network of renters decreased. Why is that? There are number of factors, but the primary factors is the ownership of real estate.

If you’re a renter, now might be the time to sit down and take a good look at your finances. Get in touch with a Realtor who can help you get prequalified for a home mortgage. Stop paying your landlords mortgage and start investing in yourself, and your future.

If you have considered buying real estate as an investment, be sure to contact a Realtor that understands your specific goals and understands how to evaluate an investment opportunity. Not all Realtors are investors.

One last item of note. What is the number one reason stated for saving money? Retirement. Here is to the pursuit of retirement, however it may come.



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© 2008 Robert Little

Monday, July 28, 2008

Weekly Median Asking Price July 28, 2008

The weekly numbers from HousingTracker.net are out again and the trend continues down. This week the median asking price is at $254,900, a reduction of -1.0%. Inventory decreased -2.6% to 45,999. Inventory levels are hovering around the same amount give or take a few thousand. One week they are up, the next they are down.

The median and upper end prices continue to decline at around an average $3300/week over the last 10 weeks. Lower end homes continue their slide but are averaging only about $1700 over the last 10 weeks. Home inventory is declining at an average of about 130 homes per week over the last 10 weeks.

These statistics are for areas that include the major cities of Corona, Fontana, Moreno Valley, Ontario, Palm Desert, Palm Springs, Rancho Cucamonga, Riverside, San Bernardino, Temecula and many others.


Trend 07/28/2008 1 month 3 month 6 month 12 month
Median Price $254,900 -5.6% -14.7% -25.0% -36.1%
Inventory 45,999 +0.1% -4.7% -9.0% -12.2%


Date Inventory
(SFH + Condo)
25th Percentile 50th Percentile
(Median)
75th Percentile
07/28/2008 45,999 $184,500 $254,900 $369,900
07/21/2008 47,243 $185,000 $257,600 $371,175
07/14/2008 45,778 $189,900 $259,999 $379,000
07/07/2008 46,531 $189,905 $264,900 $379,900
06/30/2008 45,947 $194,900 $269,900 $387,500
06/23/2008 47,519 $195,225 $270,000 $389,000
06/16/2008 46,962 $199,000 $275,000 $395,000
06/09/2008 47,297 $199,900 $279,000 $399,000
06/02/2008 46,949 $200,000 $280,000 $399,000
05/26/2008 47,187 $200,000 $285,000 $399,000


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Tuesday, July 22, 2008

Dataquick: June 2008 Sales Report

DataQuick has released the Southern California Home Resale Activity report for June 2008. How is your zip code faring? I have included a few of them from San Bernardino County below.

Some interesting items. Fontana 92336 had the most sales of SFR homes in all zip codes with 119. This was followed by Victorville and Hesperia which are just up the hill with 96 and 86 respectively.

The highest median sales price was Rancho Cucamonga with $508,000 followed by Upland at $503,000.

The majority of resale activity was significantly lower throughout San Bernardino County. Countywide prices were down by 37.50%. A few areas bucked the trend. Pioneertown had an increase in median price of 291% and San Bernardino posted the largest decline of -66.9%.

Percent change is from June 2007

Community Name
ZIP Code Sales of Single Family Homes Price Median SFR ($1,000) Price % Chg from June 2007
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY SFR Price % chg
Countywide
1,787 $225 -37.50%
Chino 91710 42 $360 -28.00%
Fontana 92336 119 $321 -25.50%
R Cucamonga 91701 29 $403 -23.60%
R Cucamonga 91730 28 $335 -28.60%
R Cucamonga 91737 29 $455 -17.10%
R Cucamonga 91739 32 $508 -25.60%

Max
119.00 $508.00 291.00%
Min
1.00 $38.00 -66.90%
25th Percentile
5.75 $157.25 -44.40%
50th Percentile
23.50 $203.50 -33.65%
75th Percentile
35.25 $282.50 -25.58%
Average
26.24 $228.72 -26.22%

Home sales in Southern California are a their lowest levels in two decades. Foreclosures continue to be a large influence on the market with 41.1% of all resales in June. John Walsh, president of DataQuick, points out one of the other problems plaguing this market, the lack of money to lend. Even those that are well qualified find it difficult to get financing.

From DataQuick: Southland home sales drag along bottom

Home sales in Southern California continued at their slowest pace in more than two decades last month as many potential buyers and sellers held off if they could, or struggled with mortgage financing if they couldn't, a real estate information service reported.

A total of 17,424 new and resale houses and condos sold in Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange counties last month. That was up 3.0 percent from 16,917 the previous month and down 13.6 percent from 20,166 for June a year ago, according to DataQuick Information Systems.

While last month's sales were the highest in ten months, it was still the slowest June in DataQuick's statistics, which go back to 1988. The June average is 28,488 sales, the peak was reached in 2005 when 40,156 homes sold.

...




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Saturday, July 19, 2008

Inland Empire Sales Pick Up

Recent statistics from DataQuick show that the sales volume in the Inland Empire picked up in June. San Bernardino County saw a rise of 1.1% Year-over-Year and Riverside County saw a rise of 11.8% Year-over-Year.

What is driving these sales are primarily foreclosures and dropping home prices. The median prices for the Inland Empire are about 100k less than any other nearby counties with as much as a -34.2% decline in median prices since June 2007.

From DataQuick: Southland home sales drag along bottom
...

A total of 17,424 new and resale houses and condos sold in Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange counties last month. That was up 3.0 percent from 16,917 the previous month and down 13.6 percent from 20,166 for June a year ago, according to DataQuick Information Systems.

While last month's sales were the highest in ten months, it was still the slowest June in DataQuick's statistics, which go back to 1988. The June average is 28,488 sales, the peak was reached in 2005 when 40,156 homes sold.

"The mortgage market turbulence is putting quite a bit of activity on hold. Policy decisions about underwriting don't really mean much if there's little or no money to lend. Even some very well-qualified households aren't getting mortgages these days, although this could all change fast if liquidity comes back," said John Walsh, DataQuick president.

The median price paid for a Southland home was $355,000 last month, down 4.1 percent from $370,000 in May and down 29.3 percent from $502,000 for June 2007. The peak of $505,000 was reached in March, April, May and July of last year.

The median has fallen because of depreciation, especially in inland markets, and because of the steep dropoff in home financing in the so-called jumbo category, which until recently was defined as loans above $417,000.

Before the credit crunch hit in August 2007, nearly 40 percent of Southland sales were financed with jumbo loans. Jumbos last month accounted for 16.3 percent of Southland sales are up from 15.7 percent in May.

Foreclosure resales continue to be a dominant factor in today's Southern California market accounting for 41.1 percent of all resales. That was up from 39.2 percent in May, and up from 7.3 percent in June a year ago. Foreclosure resales ranged from 18.9 percent in Orange County last month to 62.3 percent in Riverside County.

The cause of the up-tick, lower prices, may not be the best news, but at least the inventory is moving. Until the inventory of foreclosed homes are cleared out prices will continue to fall. I don't see this happening anytime this year.




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Monday, June 30, 2008

Morningside Real Estate Sales

Homes in the Morningside neighborhood in North Fontana continue to have an average sell price that is higher than the average list price. From June 9, 2008 through June 30, 2008 homes sold have had an average listing of $297,500. For the same period, the average selling price has been for $308,000.

For those of you in the Morningside neighborhood this number might sound very low. It is low compared to your August 2005 value. These recent sales reflect the sale of REO homes and a short sale. These are distress sales and they generally sale for less. Since the majority of listings are REO or short sale listings that then become REO, the value of homes are declining rapidly. If you do not need to sell your home, I suggest you wait until the record high inventory of foreclosures at least stops rising. Until this happens, you will not get what you want.

To find out what your home is really worth, visit our website at www.iejustlisted.net or www.iehomevalues.net.

Monday, June 16, 2008

Weekly Median Asking Price June 16, 2008

The median asking price according to HousingTracker.net continues to fall for the Riverside-San Bernardino area. The cities tracked include the cities of Corona, Fontana, Rancho Cucamonga, Ontario, and others. The median asking price fell by $4k this week and averages about $3k per week over the last 10 weeks. The weekly median asking price fell -1.4% to $275,000. The weekly inventory dropped -0.7% to a total of 46,962 units. This is only slightly higher than it was two weeks ago.

Trend 06/16/2008 1 month 3 month 6 month 12 month
Median Price $275,000 -4.8% -13.9% -21.4% -31.2%
Inventory 46,962 +0.4% -4.4% -7.5% -7.8%


Date Inventory
(SFH + Condo)
25th Percentile 50th Percentile
(Median)
75th Percentile
06/16/2008 46,962 $199,000 $275,000 $395,000
06/09/2008 47,297 $199,900 $279,000 $399,000
06/02/2008 46,949 $200,000 $280,000 $399,000
05/26/2008 47,187 $200,000 $285,000 $399,000
05/19/2008 46,779 $208,900 $289,000 $399,900
05/12/2008 47,403 $210,000 $292,500 $402,500
05/05/2008 47,960 $215,000 $299,000 $410,000
04/28/2008 48,253 $219,900 $299,000 $415,000
04/21/2008 47,920 $224,000 $299,900 $419,999
04/14/2008 48,625 $225,000 $299,999 $423,990

Monday, June 9, 2008

Weekly Median Asking Price

The median asking price according to HousingTracker.net continues to fall for the Riverside-San Bernardino area, but at a slower pace this week. The cities tracked include the cities of Corona, Fontana, Rancho Cucamonga, Ontario, and others. The weekly median asking price fell -0.4% to $279,000. This week, the weekly inventory also increase dropped +0.7% to a total of 47,297 units.

Trend06/09/20081 month3 month6 month12 month
Median Price$279,000-4.6%-12.8%-21.6%-30.9%
Inventory47,297-0.2%-3.9%-9.9%-6.4%


DateInventory
(SFH + Condo)
25th Percentile50th Percentile
(Median)
75th Percentile
06/09/200847,297$199,900$279,000$399,000
06/02/200846,949$200,000$280,000$399,000
05/26/200847,187$200,000$285,000$399,000
05/19/200846,779$208,900$289,000$399,900
05/12/200847,403$210,000$292,500$402,500
05/05/200847,960$215,000$299,000$410,000
04/28/200848,253$219,900$299,000$415,000
04/21/200847,920$224,000$299,900$419,999
04/14/200848,625$225,000$299,999$423,990
04/07/200849,226$229,000$304,900$425,000